Column: "Normalcy bias" and what it could mean for you

By David Webb – The Rare Reporter After months of ignoring it, sticker shock at the gas pump has finally registered in my consciousness. That moment of enlightenment has led me to do a little research about economics. I now know that I’ve been acting exactly how the experts predict the average consumer will when faced with an unprecedented personal experience. It all started when I filled up my gas tank at a local service station the other day, and the tab came to over $60 for just a few drops more than 15 gallons. It occurred to me as I drove off that using a credit card at self-service pumps could lead someone to be blindsided in a big way when the monthly bills arrive.
I drive a modest four-cylinder sedan so I don’t even want to consider what people who drive big gas guzzlers are paying to fill up, and the shock that could be in store for them at the end of the month. To put things in perspective, I started driving when I was 14 and at that time – I’m talking about nearly a half-century ago — gas cost about 33 cents per gallon. If I’m figuring correctly, I think that’s about a 1200 percent increase in my lifetime of driving. Admittedly, talking about price increases that have occurred over a fifty-year period might not seem so radical, but just a little over a decade ago gas cost less than $2 per gallon. It cost me less than $30 to fill up a similar car’s gas tank back then. If it were only gas that had increased in price, it might not seem like such a big deal. But everything that we require to go about our daily lives, such as groceries and clothes, has increased just as dramatically. Even the price of beer, which one needs in order to cope with the stress of all the other high prices, has skyrocketed.
We’ve all been warned for a long time by people who lived through the Great Depression of the 1930s that hard times could be coming, but most of us never took those predictions seriously. After my gas pump experience the other day my research revealed that my delayed awareness of the seriousness of the situation is not abnormal. In fact, it is a condition that is known as “normalcy bias.” Basically what that means is that if a person or group of people have never experienced a type of disaster or other traumatic experience, they tend to discount the possibility of it ever occurring. I assume that’s why — despite the repeated warnings that prices for gas and everything else that depends on energy for its production and distribution would be going through the ceiling – that so many of us have ignored the threat. It’s understandable that childless LGBT people, who often have had more discretionary income at their disposal, might be doubly blindsided by such circumstances. It’s clearer to me today than it was a week ago that all of us could be on the brink of making some pretty severe changes in our lifestyle to cope with the economic hardships that appear to be on the horizon. Considering the numbers of people who are unemployed, surviving on food stamps or even homeless, there’s a real crisis out there that most of us just don’t fully comprehend. What’s really scary is that all of the states and local governments are bankrupt and are quickly becoming unable to help support people who are in trouble. The federal government is in the same shape, and the dollar is losing its value quickly. An even scarier scenario is that many people live beyond their means and amass big debts that will crush them should they become unemployed or lose a paycheck for any other reason. Again, someone who has never lost a job or been unable to find one may not realize that it could indeed happen to them as well, according to the “normalcy bias” theory. One of the examples of “normalcy bias” afflicting a whole group of people reportedly occurred in Germany in the 1930s when Jewish people who had lived in the country for generations failed to realize the dangers they faced from Adolph Hitler and his Nazi Party. These intelligent, affluent, accomplished and sophisticated people simply were unable to comprehend what was about to happen to them. Because LGBT people who lived openly in Germany at the time suffered the same fate from the oppressors, a parallel might be drawn between then and now as regards conservative extremists’ plans for our future. During tough economic times, there is always a search for scapegoats on which to blame problems. Some things are out of our direct individual control as regards what could happen to the economy, but there is something that everyone probably needs to do in troubling times. I now remember financial experts on talk shows recently advising people to get out of debt, stay out of debt, start foregoing some luxuries, build a strong cash reserve to take care of basic needs and fill pantries with nonperishable foods.
Until my moment of awareness at the gas pump the other day, I might have considered such a plan as a little alarmist because like most people I know I’ve never gone without anything. But that could change. Now, it just seems like good common sense. David Webb is a veteran journalist who has covered LGBT issues for the mainstream and alternative press for three decades. E-mail him at davidwaynewebb@yahoo.com.]]>